OBAMA'S HISPANIC SUPPORT WOBBLY – AT 9:48 A.M. ET:  Hispanics are the fastest-growing ethnic group in America, and were a major component of the Obama coalition in 2008.  But there are signs that Hispanic support for the president is slipping, something that could cost him the election.  From the Washington Post, via London's Telegraph:

In recent Gallup polling, his approval rating among Latinos dipped to 48 percent — the lowest mark of his presidency and a significant drop-off from the 60 percent approval among the group he carried as recently as January. Obama’s approval rating among Hispanics is now just seven points higher than it is among the general public in Gallup data, a major decline from earlier in his term.

And polling conducted by Resurgent Republic, a conservative-aligned group, shows Obama under-performing his 2008 totals in key swing states with large Hispanic populations.

In Florida, where Obama won 57 percent of the Latino vote in 2008, 48 percent of Hispanics say he deserves a second term. Ditto in New Mexico, where Obama carried Latinos with 69 percent but now sees just 58 percent of that voting bloc willing to say he should be reelected.

Does this mean the Hispanic vote is up for grabs.  Republicans say yes.  But Dems say, absolutely not:

Joel Benenson, Obama’s lead pollster, pointed to an August tracking poll from ImpreMedia/Latino Decisions that showed that 72 percent of Hispanic voters said Republicans either “didn’t care” or were “hostile” to the Hispanic community as evidence that Obama’s number is likely to improve once Republicans pick their nominee.

There is reason to that.  Republicans still do not understand how unpopular their party is.  Obama may be down, even far down, but Americans don't love Republicans, although they might, at times, adore an individual Republican, like Eisenhower or Reagan.  When one thinks of political romance, the letters GOP do not come immediately to mind.

One notable Republican exception could be Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has sounded a largely moderate note on immigration during his presidential campaign; at a debate last week in Florida, he defended a measure he signed into law in 2001 that allows some illegal immigrants to attend state colleges and universities at in-state tuition rates.

Perry knows the Hispanic community.  He could possible make inroads. 

“The question that we won’t know the answer to for some time is whether they will vote for him at the same levels as 2008 or whether their sky-high vote for him will drop,” said Republican pollster Glen Bolger. “Those are the questions that likely have Democrat Latino strategists losing sleep at night.”

COMMENT:  May their insomnia increase.

September 20, 2011